Predicting the future is never easy and seldom possible but there are lot's of people trying to do it. Here's my stab at it along with year over year review of the Boise housing market. Hopefully this should be insightful. 

2009 housing is going to worse than 2008. There's a surprise for ya!

Here's some history. 2003 through 2008. Pay attention to Listing Count, Sold Price Average and Sold Price Volume as you study this image. So 2008 was a dismal year. Only 2,825 homes sold with a Boise address.

 CRITERIA FOR DATA: SINGLE FAMILY HOMES WITH A BOISE ADDRESS

 Noting that 2005 was the peak for volume sales in Boise, we can realize that the market is off by over 50%! THAT A BIG CHANGE and is sure to create a lot of unemployed real estate agents. If you are looking to buy or sell, be careful who you hire. Be sure to find someone that's still in the business full time. 

Check out the change in average sold price. Reflect 2008 against 2003:
$236,135 VS $165,019. WOW! That's a jump in appreciation of 43%. If you purchased in 2003 and didn't rob your housing piggy bank by a refinance then you're looking stable through this downturn. 

 What if you purchased at the peak average found in 2007?
$236,135 VS $257,277. Just a slip of 8%. Not too bad. So why is there so much crying out there? It's because the full story hasn't been realized yet and much of the larger corrections are taking place at the upper price points - above $350K. I believe this correction number is accelerating as told by the discrepancy found in list price vs sold price. The asking price as compared to the actual sold price is growing as a percent of the total. So it's coming...

2009?
The slide won't be dramatic, just more of the same. Few transactions and continued price corrections. There are going to be fewer transactions because the prices are still over inflated, job losses are on the rise and people are realizing they are over extended.

The price point that's realized as affordable (under $175K) will continue to out strip the supply. There will some competition at the lower price point and builders will attempt to fill the vacuum. This will hold true so long as interest rates remain low and job loses don't accelerate.

How low will it go? I think that can be explained by the sold price volume numbers. Interesting to see that 2003 sold volume was a 100,000,000 better than 2008. I predicting another price correction of 8% or more. So next years average sold price should be under $220,000. Sales volume will remain about the same and total price volume will be $650,000,000 or less.

 09' will be the year of the REFI. Just think, if you purchased in 2003 and had a rate of 6%, you're now going to refi at 4.5%. SWEETNESS! That's a major savings each month. Here's what I suggest if this applies to you... refi at 15 years and cut that debt service in 1/2. That's what I'm going to do. By the way, I purchased in 2003. LOL all the way to the bank!