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Here's some great analysis for you to get you mind around our current market.
First, consider the total number of available listings = 7,100 apx (single family, condo and townhouse and mobile home.... if you can live in it, it should count, right?). Then realize that there are a lot of listings out there attempting to sell short in Ada and Canyon County IE the Treasure Valley. About 23% or 1,633 listings are attempting to sell short and still actively marketed. Now this is a tricky assessment because a short sale could have an offer pending a third party lien holder approval and still be actively marketed. This is called contingent other, and these properties show up as active listings. Now lets explore the pending transactions. Right now, there are 1,542 pending listings. This doesn't tell the whole number because of what I said above.... listings that are attempting to sell short and are waiting for a third party lien hold approval on a pending offer count and are labeled "contingent other" - active listings. So we need to add in another 421 listings to our pending number and consider that the number of active listings is really down to 6,678. Here's the point of my post>> Historically speaking, the number of active listings should be going up in May and June. As of now, the number of active listings is shrinking. What's going on? That's right, the inventory is contracting as a whole, but the listings that are out there for sale are littered with listings that are attempting to sell short. The number of pending listings plus the contingent other = 843, or 43% of the market that is in contract is waiting for a third party lien holder approval. What's going on? That's right, nearly half of all contracts are waiting for some bank to give up on the loan amount that's owed on the property. Lastly, the bank owned inventory is contracting and the number of filings for foreclosure is going up. What's going on here? Banks simply aren't taking back the properties and putting them out for sale. They are leaving them in a short sale limbo. |