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Welcome to Wiebe's Warm Springs Mesa Subdivision Market Analysis.
I live and work on the Mesa (out of my home office) and will update this page often. The content includes real estate market information and a collection of links that will prove useful to anyone interested in this subdivision. Whenever possible, I will link to other resources that best illustrate the points I'm trying to make. The most current information will always be at the top.
Spring 2010
We've put 2009 behind us and so now it's a good time to update the sales analysis for the Warm Springs Mesa for 2009. Here are the results.
WOW! Just four sold listings for the year? FOUR? What's that all about? Looking back as far as I've got data, we've never sold so few listings. can someone say, "slow market"? This amounts to a market contraction of 70% as compared to last year. Yikes! How about that average sold price? Zingers! It seems like the sky is falling. I guess you could say button down the hatches if you're planning to sell because the buyer pool is very shallow indeed. More over, the numbers of listings for sale are way down throughout the year too. This means sellers aren't taking their homes to market unless they have to.
To be honest, my mouth is wide open over these numbers.
Spring 2009
I want to start this page by doing a recap of years past related to sold prices. Sort of a way of seeing where we've been. Below is sold data from the MLS. You will see the number of listings sold for each of the years. Pay attention to the Average and Median Sold prices. This data doesn't include El Paso. My reasoning is this, that part of the development is too new, and much more expensive. If I include it, it would skew the data for most of the houses on the Mesa. You should also know that the Mesa is comprised of a series of phases dating back to the 1960's. To say the least, the mix of housing is very diverse. I'll write something about El Paseo elsewhere.
This sold data includes "Warm Springs Mesa" and "Boulder Heights".
Here's what I see in the data:
The average sold price has grown since 2004 by 95%. That's some super strong appreciation!
It looks like the average sold price has contracted from the peak by 4.5%. That's a very small contraction in consideration to other developments throughout Ada County. As they say --location, location, location!
One thing to keep in mind is the Mesa is made up of 400+ homes of varying ages, sizes and styles. There could be some sales during each of these years that skew the data some what. But overall, when you average the whole enchilada, it should tell a fairly stable story.
In 2005, it looks like houses were selling for more than asking price. Gott'a love that!
Are you wondering which one sold for $1.3M? Here's a screen shot. What a great home! **This sale might be one that would skew the contraction in values I mentioned above. We'll see what 2009 brings. I expect more contracting in values.
Many would say that this property is located in El Paseo, but it's actually in the Boulder Heights development.
The plat map image below is El Paseo. The best way to orientate yourself to this map is look at the upper left of the image. That road hanging out there in space is the newest road coming up the Mesa --Windsong Drive.
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Click for full view - General
Plat Map Area of the Mesa
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The general area for the developed Warm Springs Mesa is about 270 acres. Click the thumb nail above for a map view. The current developer owns additional land that could be developed, but that is down the road as they say.
05/05/09
I found a Notice of Default filing for parcel R1035150150 which is in El Paseo. This is a lot that has a building started on it. Just the foundation at this point. Here's the plat the picture.
According to county filing as of this post, the balance owed is $364,874.04. I found this property for sale in the MLS marketed as a completed project for over $960,000.
LINKS
MNA - Mesa Neighborhood Association http://www.warmspringsmesa.org/
ACHD - Projects of Note
Warm Springs Enhancement Project >>http://www.achd.ada.id.us/Projects/PublicProject.aspx?ProjectID=52
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